Piping & Mechanical is the sole driver of EAC overrun — primarily Inconel alloy tubing ($12M) and field labor productivity losses ($6.2M). All other WBS within contingency.
EAC Methods Comparison
EAC Method
Formula
EAC Value
Var. from BAC
Confidence
CPI Method
BAC / CPI
$681M
+$41M (+6.4%)
Pessimistic
CPI×SPI Method
BAC / (CPI×SPI)
$710M
+$70M (+10.9%)
Conservative
Management Estimate
ETC + ACWP
$681M
+$41M (+6.4%)
Selected
Bottom-Up (Current)
Re-estimate ETC
$673M
+$33M (+5.2%)
Optimistic
To-Complete (BAC)
TCPI = (BAC−EV)/(BAC−AC)
—
TCPI: 1.06
Difficult
Recommended: Management EAC $681M based on re-assessed piping WBS. Bottom-up $673M assumes recovery of labor productivity — risk-adjusted mean: $681M. Contingency balance: $8.2M.
Budget Breakdown (BAC $640M)
Labor$192M (30%)
Materials$230M (36%)
Equipment / Plant$115M (18%)
Subcontract$77M (12%)
Other / Indirect$26M (4%)
Actual vs Budget — Current Period
Labor
Materials
Equip.
Sub.
Labor
Materials
Equip.
Sub.
Top = Budget · Bottom = Actual (period)
Funding Drawdown vs Limit
Mar 25JunSepDecMar 26JunSep
Drawn: $327MRemaining: $373MForecast EAC: $681M
EAC $681M exceeds BAC $640M by $41M — may require funding amendment approval before Q3 2026.
EAC Trend (6 Periods)
Sep 25OctNovDecJan 26Feb
BAC $640MEAC Trend
EAC has risen $41M in 6 periods
Primarily Piping WBS. If trend continues at current rate: EAC may reach $700M by project completion.
