Project Controls Suite
R-31: Baseline Variance Report
Data Date: 28 Feb 2026
Baseline Variance Report
Greenfields LNG Processing Facility — Schedule vs. Original Baseline (Rev 0) — Data Date: 28 February 2026
Avg Finish Variance
+14.3d
All active activities
Activities >10d Late
502
16.5% of schedule
Activities >20d Late
218
7.2% of schedule
Critical Path Variance
30 on CP
of 502 activities >10d slip
On / Ahead of BL
1,641
53.9% at or ahead of BL
Variance Distribution Histogram
Start Variance Distribution (BL Start vs Forecast Start)
Negative = ahead of baseline start. Positive = delayed vs. baseline start. Values in working days.
Finish Variance Distribution (BL Finish vs Forecast Finish)
Negative = finishing early vs. baseline. Positive = delayed vs. baseline finish. Values in working days.
Threshold Exceedance Summary
502
Variance > 10 Days
16.5% of 3,042 activities
30 on Critical Path
218
Variance > 20 Days
7.2% of 3,042 activities
12 on Critical Path
76
Variance > 30 Days
2.5% of 3,042 activities
8 on Critical Path
1,641
At / Ahead of Baseline
53.9% on or early
Majority on track
Top 20 Activities by Absolute Finish Variance
| # | Activity ID | Activity Name | WBS | BL Finish | Fcst Finish | Variance | CP? | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LNG-3042 | Cold Box Module Fabrication — Train 2 | 03.02 | 15 Jan 2026 | 27 Apr 2026 | +71d | CP | In Progress |
| 2 | LNG-2814 | Mechanical Equipment Delivery — Compressor A | 03.01 | 20 Nov 2025 | 10 Mar 2026 | +63d | CP | Not Started |
| 3 | LNG-3105 | Piping Spools — Cryogenic Service, Area 3 | 04.03 | 05 Feb 2026 | 15 Apr 2026 | +55d | CP | In Progress |
| 4 | LNG-1922 | Foundation Piling — Storage Tank 4 | 02.04 | 10 Oct 2025 | 30 Jan 2026 | +52d | Near-CP | Complete |
| 5 | LNG-4201 | High Voltage Switchgear Installation | 06.01 | 30 Jan 2026 | 10 Apr 2026 | +50d | CP | Not Started |
| 6 | LNG-2330 | Instrument Air Package Commissioning | 07.02 | 15 Dec 2025 | 15 Mar 2026 | +45d | Off-CP | Not Started |
| 7 | LNG-1750 | Pre-Commissioning — Relief Valve Headers | 07.04 | 22 Nov 2025 | 30 Jan 2026 | +43d | Off-CP | Complete |
| 8 | LNG-3601 | Structural Steelwork — Flare Boom Tower | 02.06 | 01 Feb 2026 | 10 Mar 2026 | +31d | Off-CP | In Progress |
| 9 | LNG-2044 | Electrical Cable Tray — Zone B Upper Level | 06.02 | 10 Jan 2026 | 12 Feb 2026 | +29d | Off-CP | Complete |
| 10 | LNG-4082 | Insulation — Cryogenic Piping, Area 4 | 05.04 | 28 Jan 2026 | 20 Mar 2026 | +28d | Off-CP | In Progress |
| 11 | LNG-2751 | HVAC Ductwork — Control Room Building | 05.01 | 15 Jan 2026 | 05 Mar 2026 | +27d | Off-CP | In Progress |
| 12 | LNG-3320 | Vessel Nozzle Orientation Checks — V-205 | 03.03 | 20 Dec 2025 | 10 Feb 2026 | +27d | Off-CP | Complete |
| 13 | LNG-1310 | Concrete Topping Slab — Pipe Rack Bays 5–8 | 02.01 | 30 Nov 2025 | 20 Jan 2026 | +26d | Off-CP | Complete |
| 14 | LNG-4450 | Fire & Gas Detection — Train 1 Integration Test | 08.01 | 15 Feb 2026 | 10 Mar 2026 | +22d | Off-CP | Not Started |
| 15 | LNG-2900 | Offshore Berthing Arm Installation — Jetty 1 | 09.01 | 05 Feb 2026 | 25 Feb 2026 | +20d | Off-CP | In Progress |
| ... Activities 16–20 omitted for brevity (variances range +15 to +19 days) ... | ||||||||
Red highlight = Critical Path activity. Amber highlight = Near-Critical Path (TF ≤ 5d). CP variance drives project end-date slippage.
WBS-Level Finish Variance Summary
| WBS | WBS Description | Activities | Avg Var (d) | Max Var (d) | >10d | >20d | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Civil & Earthworks | 312 | +8.4 | +52 | 42 | 18 | Stable |
| 02 | Structural & Concrete | 287 | +3.1 | +31 | 18 | 4 | Improving |
| 03 | Mechanical Equipment | 198 | +28.7 | +71 | 134 | 89 | Deteriorating |
| 04 | Piping | 524 | +12.2 | +55 | 181 | 62 | Stable |
| 05 | Insulation & Passive Fire Protection | 210 | +9.8 | +28 | 44 | 12 | Stable |
| 06 | Electrical | 341 | +21.4 | +50 | 148 | 88 | Deteriorating |
| 07 | Instrumentation & Controls | 289 | +7.6 | +45 | 38 | 14 | Improving |
| 08 | Pre-Commissioning & Commissioning | 187 | +11.3 | +22 | 22 | 6 | Stable |
| 09 | Jetty & Marine Works | 112 | +4.9 | +20 | 12 | 3 | Improving |
| 10 | Project Management & Closeout | 82 | +1.2 | +8 | 0 | 0 | On Track |
Average Finish Variance Trend — Monthly (May 2025 to Feb 2026)
+2.1
May
+3.8
Jun
+5.9
Jul
+7.4
Aug
+9.1
Sep
+10.8
Oct
+12.0
Nov
+13.1
Dec
+13.8
Jan
+14.3
Feb
Average finish variance has grown +12 days over 10 months. Rate of growth is decelerating — from +2d/month in Q3 2025 to +0.5d/month in Feb 2026. Mechanical and Electrical WBS remain primary drivers.
Variance Assessment — Greenfields LNG Processing Facility
- Project end-date impact is currently +47 working days driven by 8 critical path activities. Mechanical Equipment (WBS 03) and Electrical (WBS 06) are the primary delay sources. Cold Box Module fabrication delay (+71d) is the single largest CP contributor — delayed due to vendor capacity constraints at the fabricator's facility in Korea.
- The majority of the 502 activities with >10d slip are off the critical path (472 of 502). These do not directly drive the end date but consume float. If float is fully consumed in Piping (WBS 04), the end-date impact could grow by a further 15–20 days.
- Positive indicators: Structural/Concrete (WBS 02) and Jetty works (WBS 09) are improving. Rate of variance growth has decelerated to 0.5 days/month. Civil earthworks are substantially complete with managed risk.
- Recovery actions required: (1) Cold Box Module — assess air-freight of components vs. sea freight to recover 10–15 days; (2) Electrical — mobilise additional cable pulling crew targeting 30 activities by 15 Mar 2026; (3) Issue a formal Recovery Schedule for CP activities by 07 Mar 2026.