Project Controls Suite
R-25: Schedule Risk Assessment Report
Data Date: 28 Feb 2026
Schedule Risk Assessment Report
Activity Risk Scoring Matrix — Float, Duration, Resource, Logic & Historical Risk Factors — Westport Industrial Complex
High Risk Activities
10
score ≥ 4.0 / 5.0
Medium Risk
34
score 2.5–3.9
Low Risk
140
score < 2.5
Avg. Composite Score
2.3
all activities
Top Risk Activity
4.7
E-2410 (Elec.)
Risk Score Distribution Heatmap (Probability vs. Impact)
Schedule Impact →
Minimal
Minor
Moderate
Significant
Severe
Very High
2
1
3
4
3
High
3
5
4
2
1
Medium
8
6
5
3
1
Low
22
18
11
4
2
Very Low
45
20
10
3
1
↑ Likelihood
Risk Category Summary
High Risk (score ≥ 4.0)
10
Medium Risk (2.5–3.9)
34
Low Risk (≤ 2.4)
140
Scoring Factors (weighted):
Float (25%), Duration (20%), Resource (25%), Predecessors (15%), Historical (15%)
Float (25%), Duration (20%), Resource (25%), Predecessors (15%), Historical (15%)
Top 10 Highest Risk Activities — Detail Register
| Rank | Activity ID | Activity Name | Float | Float Sc. | Dur. Sc. | Res. Sc. | Pred. Sc. | Hist. Sc. | Composite | Risk | Mitigation | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | E-2410 | MV Switchgear Terminations | 15d | 2.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.7 | High | Secure 30 add. electricians; overtime plan | J. Martinez |
| 2 | M-3100 | Major Equip. Setting — Package 4 | 8d | 4.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 4.4 | High | Confirm crane availability; pre-rig plan | R. Okonkwo |
| 3 | P-1840 | Utility Header — Final Tie-Ins | 3d | 5.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 4.2 | High | Increase pipefitter allocation; 6-day week | A. Torres |
| 4 | STR-2050 | Secondary Steel — Zone 3 (sole supplier) | 4d | 4.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | High | Qualify alternate steel fabricator by Mar 26 | B. Singh |
| 5 | CV-0520 | Piled Foundation — Zone C (soil conditions) | 15d | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 | High | Add geotechnical contingency; pre-probe Zone C | D. Osei |
| 6 | E-2430 | Instrument Loop Testing | 0d | 5.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.9 | Medium-H | Resolve E-2410 first; specialist vendor on call | J. Martinez |
| 7 | M-3120 | Process Piping Hydrotest — Systems 1–4 | 0d | 5.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.8 | Medium-H | Pressure test equipment pre-mobilised on site | A. Torres |
| 8 | PROC-0810 | DCS Cabinet Delivery & Installation | 12d | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.6 | Medium-H | Track vendor; long-lead expediting weekly | F. Nguyen |
| 9 | C-0810 | Slab on Grade — Process Area B (productivity) | 22d | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.4 | Medium-H | Second supplier; third concrete gang | P. Brandt |
| 10 | STR-1040 | Foundation Design Review — Sr. Eng. Conflict | 0d | 5.0 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.3 | Medium-H | Resolve Whitfield overallocation (R-22 action) | J. Whitfield |
Risk Spotlight — Activity E-2410: MV Switchgear Terminations (Score 4.7 / 5.0)
Despite a 15-day total float buffer, E-2410 scores as the highest-risk activity in the project due to the compound effect of all five risk factors. The "healthy float" is deceptive because:
- Resource risk (5.0/5.0): Single specialized resource — licensed MV electricians — required at 120 persons peak. Only 95 confirmed available regionally. The 25-person shortage has no contingent source identified.
- Duration risk (5.0/5.0): 89-day duration activity with 100% productivity dependency on electrician availability. Any daily crew shortfall compounds over the full duration.
- Historical risk (5.0/5.0): MV switchgear termination activities on comparable projects have historically run 20–35% longer than estimated (4 data points in corporate project database). Baseline rate not adjusted for congested tray environment in Westport.
- Paradox of healthy float: The 15d float is consumed entirely by the Sep 2026 overload scenario (R-23 analysis). Effective float is 0 days — the activity is operationally critical.