R-18: EAC Trending Report

Data Date: 28 Feb 2026

Estimate at Completion (EAC) Trending Report

8-Period EAC Method Comparison — Divergence Analysis

Project

Sunrise LNG Terminal

Contract Type

Lump Sum EPC

Data Date

28 Feb 2026

BAC

$485.0M

Current CPI

0.89

EAC Divergence

$43.7M range

BAC

$485.0M

Original Budget

EAC (CPI Method)

$544.9M

+$59.9M vs BAC (+12.4%)

EAC (SPI×CPI)

$588.6M

+$103.6M vs BAC (+21.4%)

EAC (Management)

$516.0M

+$31.0M vs BAC (+6.4%)

EAC (Bottom-Up)

$528.6M

+$43.6M vs BAC (+9.0%)

EAC Range

$43.7M

CPI vs Management spread

EAC Method Trend Lines — 8 Periods (Jul 2025 – Feb 2026)

EAC by Method — Period-over-Period Trend ($M)

CPI Method (BAC/CPI)

SPI×CPI Method

Management Estimate

Bottom-Up ETC

BAC = $485.0M

EAC Values by Period and Method ($M)

Method	Jul'25	Aug'25	Sep'25	Oct'25	Nov'25	Dec'25	Jan'26	Feb'26 ◀	Δ 8-Period
BAC (Reference)	485.0	485.0	485.0	485.0	485.0	485.0	485.0	485.0	—
CPI Method BAC / CPI	488.9	494.1	499.2	508.5	519.0	531.3	539.0	544.9	+56.0
SPI×CPI Method ACWP + ETC/(SPI×CPI)	491.8	501.7	517.8	534.3	551.9	566.8	579.9	588.6	+96.8
Management Estimate ACWP + Risk-adj ETC	490.0	491.5	494.8	499.7	505.1	510.2	513.6	516.0	+26.0
Bottom-Up ETC ACWP + Detailed ETC	491.0	494.9	501.9	509.8	516.3	522.0	526.1	528.6	+37.6

Supporting EV Metrics — Period History

Metric	Jul'25	Aug'25	Sep'25	Oct'25	Nov'25	Dec'25	Jan'26	Feb'26 ◀
CPI (cumulative)	0.992	0.982	0.972	0.953	0.934	0.914	0.900	0.890
SPI (cumulative)	0.995	0.984	0.970	0.951	0.937	0.921	0.910	0.906
BCWP CTD ($M)	48.2	89.6	134.1	179.8	220.0	256.3	288.4	310.6
ACWP CTD ($M)	48.6	91.2	137.9	188.6	235.5	280.3	320.4	349.0
CV CTD ($M)	-0.4	-1.6	-3.8	-8.8	-15.5	-24.0	-32.0	-38.4
TCPI (to BAC)	1.001	1.004	1.009	1.019	1.030	1.043	1.053	1.061

EAC Divergence Alert — Management Estimate vs. CPI-Based Projection

The Sunrise LNG Terminal project shows an $28.9M divergence between the Management Estimate ($516.0M) and the CPI-based EAC ($544.9M) as of February 2026. This gap has widened steadily from $1.1M in July 2025 to $28.9M today, indicating that management estimates are increasingly optimistic relative to demonstrated cost performance.

The CPI has degraded monotonically from 0.992 to 0.890 over 8 periods with no month-over-month improvement, suggesting systemic cost growth rather than one-time events. TCPI to achieve the BAC now stands at 1.061 — requiring a 6.1% improvement in future cost efficiency, which is considered unlikely given the trend.

Recommended Action: Conduct formal Independent Cost Estimate (ICE) reconciliation between Management and CPI methods before the next Control Account Manager (CAM) review scheduled for 15 March 2026. If CPI continues below 0.90 next period, a formal Estimate to Complete (ETC) re-baseline should be initiated per contract CDRL A012.